A Slave to Variance

Of course, it’s not always clear who the fish are is it? Sometimes it’s them, and sometimes it’s me.

In the first hand, I’ve got a field of four down to a total of four collective outs, one ace, and three kings — they’ve also got some wacky straight draws, but whatever. I thought about smooth calling preflop and looking for a good flop. But inspired by Moneymaker’s losing hand at Bay 101 (and good ol’ fashioned +ev) I decided to reraise preflop. At least it was the ace that hit on the flop. Even though it’s tempting to bet here, because I’ll have odds to draw to my 2 outer if raised, I took the free card in hopes of hitting a miracle on the turn.

In the second hand, I’m three betting preflop and raising the flop with AT-high into aces. Who’d a thunk? When I hit my “safety” card on the turn (a ten which pairs me) I check, knowing that I’m in that sweet spot of being well ahead or well behind. The miracle ten hits the river and I get to bet and poor supergrrl, a player that I seem to outdraw constantly, gets to swear at me in the comfort of her own home.

holdem       $ 40/80 Bartolome                          Thu Jun 10
     ante: 0.00 blinds: 20.00 40.00 rake: 3.00  pot: 1617 [2c 4c As Th 8c]
Hornet9        2777 Cc   k    f                120 -120.0
Andrew         3353 R    k    f                120 -120.0 [Js Jh]
tony2times     3742 Sf                          20  -20.0
 -
supergrrl      2045 Bf                          40  -40.0
 -
samm82         1160 f                            0    0.0
melissa47      1027 rc   k    kr   bc          440 -440.0 [Kc Ad]
Empressjo      3333 Cc   k    bc   cc          440 -440.0 [Ah 9c]
RealSAINT      2645 Cc   k    cc   r           440 1177.0 [Ac 3c]
---
holdem       $ 40/80 Anguilla                           Thu Jun 10
     ante: 0.00 blinds: 20.00 40.00 rake: 3.00  pot:  777 [5s Jh Js Ts Tc]
supergrrl      2329 BC   kC   k    kc          280 -280.0 [As Ac]
 -
PEngineer      1397 f                            0    0.0
tony2times     2678 f                            0    0.0
 -
Hornet9        2172 rc   bc   k    kf          200 -200.0
Andrew         4977 R    r    k    b           280  497.0 [Ah Th]
reztes757      4405 Sf                          20  -20.0

Sometimes even Sklansky has a good idea.

holdem       $ 40/80 Davao                              Sun Jun  6
     ante: 0.00 blinds: 20.00 40.00 rake: 3.00  pot:  537 [Kc Ah 6h 4d Kd]
 -
 -
tony2times     4250 Bf                          40  -40.0
supergrrl      2287 f                            0    0.0
 -
 -
Lex Luthor    11598 f                            0    0.0
Andrew         3788 rc   kc   kc   k           240  297.0 [8d Kh]
scoobysmurf    1356 R    b    b    k           240 -240.0 [7c 7h]
Scott Brooks   1548 Sf                          20  -20.0

This is a pretty classic situation. You’ve raised with King-high as a steal, get three bet, and the flop comes AKx. What do you do? Sklansky says you should play it passivly. You could easily be crushed, but you might be against someone putting action in with a smaller pocket pair.

Of course, when I rivered trips I hoped that I’d been against a not-too-big Ace instead of the sevens that my opponent actually held.

Fucking river check-raises.

I hear the line between madness and utter stupidity is pretty thin.

holdem       $ 20/40 Ambrym                             Thu Jun  3
     ante: 0.00 blinds: 10.00 20.00 rake: 3.00  pot:  617 [Tc Qh 5s Ac 4c]
NoworNever     1349 SC   krc  k    kf          100 -100.0
lpsfc           839 Bc   kCc  k    brc         260 -260.0 [Jd Kd]
bristri        1185 f                            0    0.0
Cheyenne5       800 -                            0    0.0
Furley          731 f                            0    0.0
Angelina       1810 f                            0    0.0
iflopedit       480 f                            0    0.0
 -
Andrew         1537 r    br   k    rr          260  357.0 [8c Jc]
whoopee         390 f                            0    0.0

Nothing like bet/re-raising a crappy gutshot with a backdoor flush draw on the flop. Maybe it’ll tilt someone?

Sometimes you have to put in that last raise, even when you might be behind.

holdem       $ 20/40 Graciosa                           Tue Jun  1
     ante: 0.00 blinds: 10.00 20.00 rake: 3.00  pot:  537 [3h Tc 8d 9s 3d]
KevinO1         122 cc   cf                     60  -60.0
 -
 -
AsianRivrRat    587 f                            0    0.0
yorick          800 -                            0    0.0
Andrew         1674 r    rc   c    r           220  317.0 [Ah Ad]
shotgun         780 f                            0    0.0
 -
De Lorenzo     1086 SC   kf                     40  -40.0
anteuncle       954 Bc   br   b    bc          220 -220.0 [8h Ts]

Three key point with this hand:

1) I’m playing against a loose/tricky fit-or-folder who over bets his hands. Very, very difficult to know where you stand against such players. I have no clue if I’m ahead or behind on the flop and the turn. Ain’t no way I’m folding here.

2) When you are behind with an overpair, you are usually not too far behind when the board is not scary. In this case I’ve got 8 outs, exactly where I thought I would be if I were behind. The problem is, it’s hard to know which of the board pairs is safe. Remember, loose/tricky fitter here.

3) The river raise is not automatic against most players. Against some it is, against others you are raising into a full house. It’s important to know who you are against. Here, it’s hard to say where I’m at, which means I may as well raise (and call the reraise).