A Slave to Variance

I don’t know what posesses people to go insane with bluffing. I realise that now and again, the bluff-raise is a pretty solid play, but the bluff-bet/bluff-reraise/bluff-bet, then call just doesn’t seem like it’s going to make a lot of money in the long run. Even when you factor in advertising.

holdem       $ 40/80 Shoal Bay                          Wed Jul 28
     ante: 0.00 blinds: 20.00 40.00 rake: 2.00  pot: 1118 [9h 3c 2s 3h Td]
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golfer28       4222 Sc   b    brc  bc          560 -560.0 [Kc 6h]
Andrew         3943 Bk   c    rr   r           560  558.0 [2c 3s]
qige5960       5720 f                            0    0.0
Angelina       3370 f                            0    0.0 

Yep, I stepped into deep shit with my 5th street raise. Thank god I’m a luck-bucket when it comes to stud/8.

There’s nothing like being an over-aggressive idiot to ensure that you’re raising into the (near) nuts on a regular basis. I plead innocent by reason of insanity. There’s clearly no way construction is going to lay down on fifth street with any hand at all. My ten high low draw might look mildly intimidating, but in retrospect I kinda doubt it. I guess I was hoping to be able to steal from him on the river (fat chance) or something.

I guess the “or something” worked out pretty well though. Nothing like the miracle-gutshot-when-the-opponents-trips-doesn’t-fill to scoop it on the river.

stud-H/L   $ 30/60      Poker Stars - Naema          Sat Jul 10
  ante:5.00 blinds:  5.00 10.00  rake:3.00 pot: 1180
 dzik          2090  0 .f                           5    -5 [.. ..] Ts
 CONNIEC        592  7 .rc  kf                     65   -65 [.. ..] As Js
 Makino        1727  6 .f                           5    -5 [.. ..] 7d
 construction  3006  5 .cc  bc   krR  b    bc     545  -545 [Jh Jc] 7s 3h Jd 9h [Kd]
 GLYNIS        1082  4 .f                           5    -5 [.. ..] Th
 Manly         1410  3 .f                           5    -5 [.. ..] Qs
 Andrew        1855  2 .or  r    bRc  kc   kr     545   632 [6d 7h] 5s 8h Tc Kc [9s]
 BungeeYazee    460  1 .f                           5    -5 [.. ..] 8s

From time to time luck lines up in funny ways, and you end up beating the same guy over and over in unexpected ways.

Poor nov__rain. I’d just sucked out on him in our last three confrontations. Then these two hands came up. In the first hand, I semi-bluff the flop with my baby flush draw and he raises me. You’d think he’d raise me with a real hand since I’d been holding over. Alas for him we check it down the rest of the way and my 8-high is good. Score ONE for the dominating hands.

holdem       $ 40/80 Anuta                              Wed Jul 14
     ante: 0.00 blinds: 20.00 40.00 rake: 2.00  pot:  258 [Th 2s 4s 2d Jc]
GAL_leluiah    3394 Sf                          20  -20.0
Andrew         4669 Bk   bc   k    k           120  138.0 [8s 6s]
jweido         3494 f                            0    0.0
nov__rain       745 c    r    k    k           120 -120.0 [5c 6h]

In the second hand, he has the unfortunatly luck of calling my raise with a dominated hand. No suckouts and my 54s beats his 43o. With a board of T4K5K, I can’t bet the river because any pair (except 4s) beats me now. Score TWO for the dominating hands.

holdem       $ 40/80 Anuta                              Wed Jul 14
     ante: 0.00 blinds: 20.00 40.00 rake: 2.00  pot:  478 [Td 4h Kh 5d Ks]
GAL_leluiah    3752 f                            0    0.0
Andrew         4787 r    b    b    k           200  278.0 [5c 4c]
jweido         3214 SC   kf                     80  -80.0
nov__rain       545 Bc   kc   kc   k           200 -200.0 [4s 3d]

Aparently I still have formatting problems too.

Sometimes when you’re right you’re right, even when you’re wrong. There’s nothing like hitting your nut draw and losing.

qige is just one of those nutcase players. Not totally insane, and clearly not a genius. But he’ll mess with your head quite a bit. When I (bottom) paired my flush draw on the turn, I felt it would be a good time to raise for a free river. The jammed flop gave me the sense that any pair just *might* be good. And it was.

Unfortunatly, my flush draw hit giving nutball-boy a straight flush to my Ace-high flush. I don’t think I’d have gone more than seven bets here in a live game, but his turn 3-bet would have made sure that at least seven bet would have left my stack on the river.

holdem       $ 40/80 Spanish Wells                      Sun Jul 11
     ante: 0.00 blinds: 20.00 40.00 rake: 2.00  pot: 1678 [Jh 9h 2c 3c Qh]
Ren25          3350 f                            0    0.0
qige5960       2213 Src  krr  br   brc         840  838.0 [8h Th]
Andrew         3195 Br   brc  rc   rr          840 -840.0 [3h Ah]
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Bertheau       1826 f                            0    0.0
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AldiMoney      3824 f                            0    0.0