A Slave to Variance

I know it must seem odd that I win virtually every hand that I post here. You might think: “Is he just trying to pump himself up?”. Well, there is that.

The truth has more to do with the fact that I only order hand histories when I can’t see my opponents cards. One of the many nice things about online poker is that you can request to see a hand that makes it to the river but isn’t tabled. Of course, when I lose a showdown I nearly always see my opponents cards. There are of course exceptions in multi-way pots. I only have easy access to the hands which I’ve won and my opponent didn’t have to show.

Yeah, have I walked through the bowels of society to rid the world of players possessed.

Seriously though. What does possess player to play the way they do? Ok, check-raising the turn with 88 when there are three overcards isn’t the worst play in the world. And calling the three bet isn’t totally nuts. But when the four-flush hits on the river and you have none? Well I guess a rivered set might just be good enough one in 12 times there. Either that or Beelzebub just got a new gig.

“Be gone! In the Name of the Father, the Son, and the Holy Spirt!”

holdem       $ 40/80 Rakahanga                          Sun Aug 29
     ante: 0.00 blinds: 20.00 40.00 rake: 2.00  pot: 1058 [Jc Qs 7c Kc 8c]
 -
 -
bfdog          1506 f                            0    0.0
d-jarl         2539 Sf                          20  -20.0
muckpup        3060 Br   bc   krc  kc          520 -520.0 [8d 8h]
Andrew         6058 rc   r    br   b           520  538.0 [Td Ac]
 -
Angelina       5126 f                            0    0.0

We all make mistakes. I make a TON of them.

So it’s the river and I’ve been pushing my crappy hand into a massive fish throughout the hand. Finally on the river, I hit a good hand and then I check. I check? I check. I’ve got top and middle pair on a mildly scary board, and I’m against a fish. The fish bets, and I call. I call!?! This would have been a perfect opportunity to raise. But I call. I blame it on the fact that I was playing three tables. That’s the ticket!

holdem       $ 40/80 St Barthelemy                      Wed Aug 25
     ante: 0.00 blinds: 20.00 40.00 rake: 3.00  pot:  617 [Qh 6d 8d 9d Kc]
king of rave   1777 f                            0    0.0
J.Vegas        3244 f                            0    0.0
 -
JKool           321 f                            0    0.0
M Lisa          814 f                            0    0.0
Andrew         3156 r    b    b    kc          280  337.0 [9h Kh]
LIPP51         1799 C    c    c    b           280 -280.0 [9s Qd]
Fucan          3586 f                            0    0.0
newpg          2445 Sf                          20  -20.0
DannyMaster    3796 Bf                          40  -40.0

Reading hands isn’t easy, and when you’re wrong it can cost you big time.

When someone goes crazy on a flushy board with an ace it can be really easy to put them on a pair or a flush draw. It’s kind of hard to pot them on a straight draw. The turn action pushed me even further into the made hand (on the flop) camp. That meant that my set was good. Luckily for me the flush (and four-straight) came in on the river, causing me to second guess my turn evaluation. I lose to a turned straight.

hold'em[L] $ 40/80   Paradise Poker - Seychelles     Mon Aug 23 08:46:59 2004
        ante:0.00 blinds: 20.00 40.00  rake:1.00 pot: 1279  [7c 6d Ah 3d 4d]
 Sam Adams      975  2 f                            0     0
 Andrew        6760  1 Sr   brc  brc  kc          640  -640 [7d 7h]
 triwhurly     6119  0 Bc   rr   rr   b           640   639 [4h 5s]

Yeah, no one wants to hear about bad beats, but I found another one that I wanted to share.

Who knew that quad queens was the hand of the week? Maybe there is such a thing as karma?

holdem       $ 40/80 Etarik                             Mon Aug 23
     ante: 0.00 blinds: 20.00 40.00 rake: 3.00  pot: 1737 [Ac 9h Qh 3s Qc]
nuts2u         1456 f                            0    0.0
triwhurly      7297 f                            0    0.0
Folded         1233 Sf                          20  -20.0
tobie          1557 Bf                          40  -40.0
 -
 -
R.U?O.K?       1374 rr   br   br   brc         840 -840.0 [Ad Ah]
 -
Andrew         3945 Rc   rc   rc   rr          840  897.0 [Qd Qs]
Scott Brooks   1916 f                            0    0.0