A Slave to Variance

*sigh*

Down 93 BB for the month. I should either play more or play less. I just can’t figure out which it is.

That’s what I get for going on vacation.

I’m not a big fan of poker books for their insights into strategy, but vacationing in Maui with Anthony Holden’s “Big Deal” was enjoyable enough.

The book really should be called “101 Ways to Blow Your Bankroll”. The premise is that Tony is going to spend a year as a professional player. To do this, he is going to set aside $20,000 to play poker, reserving the bulk of his net worth for handling things like rent, alimony, his children’s tuition etcetera. One gets the impression that poker is just a game to him, as opposed to the make or break proposition it is for most professionals.

Here’s a not-so-brief list of things he does in an attempt to go broke:

- plays well over his bankroll
- plays in many clandestine games
- jumps directly on the touring pro circuit
- blows his winnings on extravagent gifts
- spends $4000 on a single transatlantic fare
- chases his losses with $100/hand blackjack
- excercises extremely poor game selection
- uses his writing income to disguise his losses
- uses monetary gifts to disguise his losses
- plays way too loose
- puts too much weight in tournament results

This book really isn’t the story of a year as a professional poker player. Rather, it’s the story of an acomplished writer spending a year playing poker so that he can write a book. Because of this underlying motivation to have something to write about, he does an extreme amount of traveling to play with the touring pros in exotic locations. His trip to play in a clandestine poker tournament in the American South is a perfect example. It’s almost as if he’s hoping that the local authorities will in fact bust up the gathering just so he can have more to write about.

Interspersed throughout the book is the story of poker. There is a lot of history, much adulation of the poker personalities, and a fairly detailed personal poker biography. In the book Holden describes how his poker life is framed by his relationship with his father, his psyche, and ultimatly his need to simultaneously rebel from, and be accepted by his peers. It really is this subthread which makes the book worthwhile.

As a diary of a poker professional the book falls flat on it’s face. As an expose of one mans obsession with a game which he hopes to master, but masters him instead, it is a worthwhile and provocative read.
was enjoyable enough.

Everyone always finds the one in a million hand.

You always here about these amazing set-ups. AA vs. KK vs. QQ, which I’ve seen. Or any other of a number of chance occurances. Of course, any specific hand is a chance occurance, so most aren’t that interesting. This hand falls exactly into that category of intellectually curious but not that interesting overall.

JJ vs. JJ vs. 98 vs. 98, with a board of T7x.

Overheard after the hand: “Imagine the action if a Jack fell on the turn!”

holdem       $ 20/40 Ambrym                             Mon Sep  6
     ante: 0.00 blinds: 10.00 20.00 rake: 3.00  pot:  337 [Td 3s 7c Kd Ac]
squirko         637 c    bC   k    k            80   88.5 [Jh Jc]
ushy1205        521 f                            0    0.0
T6N9A          2309 f                            0    0.0
Nate7out       1164 f                            0    0.0
big foot        222 c    rc   k    k            80   88.5 [Jd Js]
dino2          1617 f                            0    0.0
Wiggles         833 f                            0    0.0
Andrew         2516 c    R    k    k            80  -80.0 [9s 8s]
Scott Brooks    807 Sc   kC   k    k            80  -80.0 [9c 8c]
afmarks         489 Bk   kf                     20  -20.0

Sometimes you think you are making insane bluffs, but it turns out you are pounding them with the best hand.

The problem with this hand isn’t that I’m bluffing with the best hand. Or that I’m three betting with Jack-high. It’s that I’m out of position. This leaves me dangerously vulnerable to players who will bluff bet the river if I check to them. So while I may be bluffing with the best hand I would much prefer it if I had position.

But I didn’t.

holdem       $ 20/40 Ambrym                             Mon Sep  6
     ante: 0.00 blinds: 10.00 20.00 rake: 3.00  pot:  517 [5h 2h Ts 7d 8c]
squirko         300 -                            0    0.0
ushy1205        257 f                            0    0.0
T6N9A          2292 f                            0    0.0
Nate7out        634 f                            0    0.0
 -
dino2          1490 f                            0    0.0
Madameblue      962 r    r    rc   c           240 -240.0 [6c 8d]
Andrew         2132 SC   bc   br   b           240  277.0 [Jh 9h]
Scott Brooks    750 Bc   f                      40  -40.0
afmarks         789 f                            0    0.0

One reason why the online games can be to tough is that even the fish give you a hard time.

There is a breed of fish that constant value bets at you with any made hand. If they think they have you beat, they’ll bet it. They are wrong a lot of times but when they are right you have to pay through the nose. It really can become a tightrope trying to figure out when you can and cannot raise them back. In both of these hands I wimped out, going passive until the river gives me that inspirational card which allows me to raise with a hand that was best all along.

holdem       $ 40/80 Shoal Bay                          Fri Sep  3
     ante: 0.00 blinds: 20.00 40.00 rake: 2.00  pot:  798 [2c Tc 3s 4c 7h]
Mr. Softee     8216 Bc   f                      80  -80.0
 -
 -
 -
MAN on FIRE!   6748 f                            0    0.0
Andrew         2456 r    c    c    r           360  438.0 [7c 7s]
cyaondriver     560 f                            0    0.0
 -
DADDY-COOL     2596 SC   b    b    bc          360 -360.0 [6h 6s]
 -
---
holdem       $ 40/80 Shoal Bay                          Fri Sep  3
     ante: 0.00 blinds: 20.00 40.00 rake: 2.00  pot:  818 [6d 3c 6h 7c 6s]
Mr. Softee     8746 f                            0    0.0
DADDY-COOL      659 Sf                          20  -20.0
 -
 -
MAN on FIRE!   6564 Bc   kr   b    bc          400 -400.0 [4c 4h]
Andrew         2503 r    bc   c    r           400  418.0 [8s 8c]
cyaondriver     559 f                            0    0.0