A Slave to Variance

I’m not really an advocate of laying down strong hands on the river. But sometimes, somtetimes, sometimes. This one wasn’t the hardest of tough folds. It looks a tougher than it is because I’m folding trips plus a low in stud/8.

stud-H/L   $ 30/60      Poker Stars - Hanskya        Wed Dec 22
  ante:5.00 blinds:  5.00 10.00  rake:3.00 pot: 1820
 Kournikova    2001  0 .f                           5    -5 [.. ..] 6h
 sub-zero      1277  7 .f                           5    -5 [.. ..] Js
 Nice Pair!!    590  6 .f                           5    -5 [.. ..] Qs
 Mandingo666    600  5 .of                         15   -15 [.. ..] 2s
 castero       1590  4 .r   rR   r    cc   bRc    635  1182 [2d 5h] 3d 4s 8d 9c [6s]
 alex1         5962  3 .c   kCC  C    r    rR     635  -635 [Ac 8h] 6c 6d 4c 2c [As]
*Andrew        2321  2 .c   bRc  bc   bc   kCf    515  -515 [7s Ad] 5c 7d 7c 4d [8c]
 BAHRAAM        654  1 .f                           5    -5 [.. ..] 9d

The key to making this fold easily is knowing that castero is a good player and alex1 is a nutcase. With alex1 holding a board of 6624, there is no way that castero is raising because he has a strong low hand. While he does in fact have a rough six, that’s just not enough for him to go to town here. Coupled with the fact that castero jammed on 4th street as well as the river and I get to kiss my set goodbye.

Goodbye set.

This isn’t always going to be a fold because you’ll often find yourself at the river with two players like alex1. In that case, it’s hold on for dear life.

I play a lot of limit hold’em, and there are some things which are true about the game which just boggle the mind.

For example, there are situations in which:

* you lose money when you call with a hand.
* you lose more money when you raise, then call any reraises with that same hand.

BUT

* it is profitable to raise and reraise with that same hand.

Strange but true. And actually not all that uncommon.